Next-Generation Tornado Forcasting

Next-Generation Tornado Forcasting

Testing has begun on the next generation of tornado forecasting technology. The system, designed to guide forecasters in predicting hazardous weather patterns, helped save lives in the devastating series of tornadoes that hit Oklahoma last May. Although 41 lives were lost, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration believes countless more were spared because of the earlier warnings of approaching danger. Some warnings went out as much as an hour before the storm. According to researchers at the Georgia Tech Research Institute, the system could increase warning time by as much as 50 percent in the state.

Researchers are working on the National Severe Storms Laboratory's Next Generation Warning Decision Support System. The warning system was installed at the National Weather Service's Peachtree City office earlier in May, and two more systems were scheduled to be in Georgia Tech laboratories by the end of June. One of the labs is on Georgia Tech's main campus in Atlanta; the other is northwest of the city.

According to Gene Greneker, a research scientist who heads the institute's new Severe Storms Research Center, the system can be tuned to perform more efficiently in Georgia. "Tornadoes in Georgia and elsewhere in the Southeast are often short-lived events," Greneker said. "They can come and go in 10 minutes, as opposed to an hour in Kansas. As a result, the radar signal processing may need to be set slightly differently from those that were developed for the Great Plains states."

Researchers will collect storm data and determine if changing parameters in the system's algorithms will make it work better in Georgia.

The system includes advanced image processing, artificial intelligence, neural network, and other algorithms that use Doppler radar data. The information is integrated with other weather sensor data to help forecast tornadoes, severe thunderstorms, and flash floods.

The Severe Storms Lab has tested the Warning Decision Support System successfully around the country since 1994. An earlier version of the system went to Peachtree City in preparation for the Olympic Games, when it became part of the temporary Olympics weather support service.

Funding for the test systems in Georgia comes from the Georgia Emergency Management Agency, the Federal Emergency Management Agency, and the Georgia General Assembly. Bell South Business Systems is providing funds to pay for high-speed data transmission lines.